The USDA’s latest WASDA report provides a comprehensive outlook for the 2024/25 oilseed market, highlighting key changes in production, stock levels, and prices.
U.S. oilseed production for 2024/25 is projected at 131.5 million tons, with soybean production at 4.4 billion bushels, down 15 million bushels from the previous month.
Global soybean stocks are expected to decrease by 0.1 million tons to 127.8 million tons, driven by lower stocks in key producing countries and higher stocks in China.
China’s soybean imports for 2023/24 are revised upwards by 3.0 million tons to 108.0 million, reflecting higher-than-anticipated arrivals later in the marketing year.
U.S. oilseed production for 2024/25 is projected to reach 131.5 million tons, a slight increase of 0.3 million tons from the previous month. This growth is driven by increased production of rapeseed, peanuts, and cottonseed, partially offset by reductions in soybean and sunflower seed production. Soybean production is forecasted at 4.4 billion bushels, down 15 million due to a reduction in harvested area, now projected at 85.3 million acres.
Global oilseed production for 2024/25 is expected to be slightly reduced, with lower sunflower seed output mainly from Russia and Ukraine due to adverse weather conditions. However, this is mostly offset by higher rapeseed production in Canada and the EU. Global soybean stocks are projected to decrease by 0.1 million tons to 127.8 million tons, with reductions in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Russia, the EU, and the U.S., partially balanced by higher stocks in China.
China’s soybean imports for 2023/24 are revised upwards by 3.0 million tons to 108.0 million, reflecting larger-than-anticipated arrivals expected later in the year. Additionally, exports for Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Benin, and Canada are raised for 2023/24, indicating a dynamic trade environment.
The overall outlook for the 2024/25 oilseed market shows mixed trends, with slight increases in U.S. production offset by reductions in key global regions. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecasted at $11.10 per bushel, a slight decrease from the previous month. Soybean meal and oil prices remain stable, reflecting a balanced market outlook despite fluctuating production and stock levels.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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