In this report, we delve into the latest updates from the USDA regarding the 2023/24 soybean market, encompassing U.S. supply and use, as well as global production and demand trends.
U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 remain stable, with unchanged soybean crush and season-average price forecasts; however, soybean oil price is reduced by 2 cents to 49 cents per pound.
Global oilseed production is down by 0.7 million tons to 658.7 million, with a decrease in soybean and sunflower seed production, partly offset by an increase in rapeseed production.
Global soybean forecasts for 2023/24 show lower beginning stocks, production, and crush, but higher exports by 3.0 million tons and lower ending stocks by 1.8 million tons to 114.3 million, mainly influenced by adjustments in Brazil and South Africa's production and China's increased imports.
The U.S. soybean market's supply and use dynamics for the 2023/24 season remain steady, with no changes from the previous month. The soybean crush remains constant, but there's a slight increase in the soybean meal extraction rate. This has led to an increase in soybean meal exports, which is largely balanced by a decrease in domestic use. The season-average price forecasts for soybeans and soybean meal are unchanged, whereas the soybean oil price forecast is reduced by 2 cents to 49 cents per pound.
The global production forecast for oilseeds in 2023/24 is slightly reduced by 0.7 million tons to 658.7 million. This revision is due to decreased soybean and sunflowerseed production, somewhat offset by an increase in rapeseed production. Key adjustments include a decrease in sunflowerseed output for South Africa and an increase in rapeseed output for India, Russia, and Ukraine. Specifically, global soybean production is down by 1.4 million tons, driven by lower production figures for Brazil and South Africa.
The global soybean supply and demand forecast sees several adjustments: beginning stocks and production are lowered, while exports are increased, leading to a decrease in ending stocks. Initial stocks are revised down by 1.4 million tons, mainly due to historical adjustments in China's crush and import figures. Notably, soybean production adjustments include a 1.0 million ton reduction for Brazil, bringing the total to 155 million tons, and a 0.4 million ton decrease for South Africa to 2.1 million tons. These changes result in a reduction in global soybean crush and ending stocks, which now stand at 114.3 million tons, a 1.8 million ton decrease from previous estimates.
On the trade front, global soybean exports are bolstered by 3.0 million tons, reflecting higher shipments from Brazil and Ukraine. This adjustment is partly due to increased soybean imports by China, which are revised upwards by 0.5 million tons compared to the last marketing year's revised estimate.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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