The latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report reveals an upward revision in the 2024 forecast for U.S. red meat and poultry production, primarily driven by increased beef output that more than compensates for reductions in pork, broiler, and turkey production.
U.S. beef production for 2024 is raised due to higher cattle slaughter and heavier weights, offsetting declines in pork, broiler, and turkey production.
Beef import forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are increased, while beef exports for 2024 are lowered based on recent trade data; pork and broiler export forecasts are also adjusted reflecting shifting international demand.
Price forecasts for cattle, hogs, and broilers are raised for 2024 and 2025 due to strong demand, while turkey price forecasts are lowered reflecting weaker market conditions.
Beef production for 2024 is raised due to higher cattle slaughter numbers and heavier dressed weights projected for the third and fourth quarters. In contrast, pork production is lowered owing to a slower pace of slaughter and lighter dressed weights. Broiler (chicken) production sees a reduction in the third quarter based on recent slaughter data, outweighing a higher fourth-quarter forecast informed by recent hatchery data. Turkey production is also decreased, reflecting recent production and hatchery trends. Total egg production is adjusted downward based on current production data and a slower-than-expected growth rate in the laying flock.
Looking ahead to 2025, the forecast for red meat and poultry production is further raised, with higher beef, pork, and broiler outputs anticipated. Beef production is expected to increase due to higher steer and heifer slaughter, particularly in the first half of the year, along with heavier weights. Pork production is projected to rise as the pig crop and farrowing intentions indicate larger hog supplies, leading to increased pork output. Broiler production is boosted due to a higher price outlook, while turkey production is lowered as reduced price forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are expected to dampen recovery rates. Total egg production remains unchanged for 2025.
While the report focuses primarily on U.S. production, global supply influences are evident through adjustments in import and export forecasts. Strong international demand and ample supplies from regions like Oceania and South America lead to increased beef import forecasts for both 2024 and 2025. Conversely, the global availability of poultry and competitive pressures from other major exporters impact U.S. broiler and turkey export projections.
Beef import forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are raised, reflecting continued strong demand and availability from key suppliers in Oceania and South America. Beef exports for 2024 are lowered based on recent trade data, with no changes anticipated for 2025. The pork export forecast for 2024 is reduced due to current trade trends but is raised for 2025, anticipating higher U.S. supplies and improved international demand, especially in the second half of the year.
Broiler export forecasts are lowered for both 2024 and 2025 due to recent trade data and decreased competitiveness relative to other major exporters. This suggests increased competition in the global poultry market, which may continue into 2025. The turkey export forecast is lowered for 2024 based on recent data but remains unchanged for 2025.
The USDA report indicates a complex outlook for the U.S. meat industry. The surge in beef production is a significant positive factor, offsetting declines in other sectors and leading to an overall increase in red meat and poultry production for 2024. Adjustments in trade forecasts reflect shifting international demand and competitive dynamics, particularly affecting pork and broiler exports. Price forecasts have been adjusted accordingly, with increases for cattle, hogs, and broilers due to strong demand, while turkey prices are lowered in response to weaker market conditions.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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