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  • Writer's pictureAvi Shaposhnik

Case Study: Navigating Market Volatility for Sugar Procurement Success - A Strategic Approach

Updated: Sep 11, 2023

A Comprehensive Look

  1. Cost Savings: The baker's total expenditure on sugar was $1,176,300, a saving of $583,700 compared to the old strategy.

  2. Risk Mitigation: The baker avoided the financial pitfalls of excess inventory and fluctuating market prices.

  3. Operational Flexibility: The Price Protection Guarantee allowed the baker to adapt to market changes swiftly, providing a competitive edge.

Introduction

The sugar market is anything but stable, and for businesses in the baking industry, this volatility can spell financial disaster. This case study delves into the transformative journey of a large scale baker who leveraged Hedgify's Price Protection Guarantee to navigate the choppy waters of sugar pricing. Hedgify's solution enabled the baker to purchase sugar only when he needs it for production, while mitigating the risk of price fluctuations. By adopting this new strategy, the baker not only optimized their sugar procurement but also achieved significant cost savings, reduced inventory risks, and gained unparalleled flexibility in market adaptation.


Historic and Forward White Sugar Price
White Sugar Price (USD/Ton)

Background: The Sugar Quandary

For this baker sugar is more than just a sweetener—it's a critical business asset. Traditionally, they were locking into a fixed-price purchasing strategy, committing to an annual quantity of 2,000,000 pounds of sugar at 88 cents per pound. This approach had its pitfalls, especially when market conditions fluctuated or when the anticipated large new client didn't materialize.


Old Strategy In-Depth:

  • Fixed price: 88 cents per pound

  • Total annual commitment: $1,760,000

  • Financial risks: Excess inventory, financing costs, market vulnerability


The Paradigm Shift: Embracing Price Protection Guarantee

Realizing the limitations of their old strategy, the baker turned to a Price Protection Guarantee. This financial instrument allowed them to hedge against market volatility by locking in prices while retaining the flexibility to adapt to actual needs. Here's a quarter-by-quarter breakdown:


Quarter 1: The Calculated Leap
  • Forecasted sugar use: 750,000 pounds

  • Agreed price with supplier: 69 cents per pound

  • Forward market price: 43 cents per pound

  • Downside Protection: Coverage for prices dropping below 38.7 cents

  • Cost of Protection: 2.5% or $8,062

  • Net Cost: $505,312

Deep Dive: The baker wisely chose to forecast their sugar use and agreed on a price that was lower than their previous fixed rate. They also purchased downside protection, which paid off when the market price dropped even further. The net cost was significantly lower than it would have been under the old strategy.


Quarter 2: The Strategy Evolves
  • Forecasted sugar use: 250,000 pounds

  • Agreed price with supplier: 88 cents per pound

  • Forward market price: 42 cents per pound

  • Downside Protection: Coverage for prices dropping below 37.8 cents

  • Cost of Protection: 3.25% or $3,413

  • Net Cost: $211,413

Deep Dive: In Q2, the baker continued to refine their strategy. Despite a higher agreed price with the supplier, the downside protection was crucial when the market price plummeted. The net cost remained manageable, thanks to the payout from the Price Protection Guarantee.


Quarter 3: Risk Mitigation in Action
  • Forecasted sugar use: 250,000 pounds

  • Agreed price with supplier: 88 cents per pound

  • Forward market price: 40 cents per pound

  • Downside Protection: Coverage for prices dropping below 36 cents

  • Cost of Protection: 4.25% or $4,250

  • Net Cost: $221,750

Deep Dive: The baker's strategy in Q3 was similar to Q2, but the cost of protection was higher due to increased market volatility. However, the downside protection again proved its worth, making the net cost justifiable.


Quarter 4: Adapting to Market Surprises
  • Forecasted sugar use: 250,000 pounds

  • Potential expansions: A new client didn't materialize, hence the additional 500,000 pounds were not purchased

  • Agreed price with supplier: 88 cents per pound

  • Forward market price: 39 cents per pound

  • Downside Protection: Coverage for prices dropping below 35.1 cents

  • Cost of Protection: 5% or $4,875 plus $12,950 for protecting potential new client's production needs

  • Net Cost: $237,825

Deep Dive: Q4 threw a curveball as the anticipated large client didn't come through. The baker didn't need to buy additional sugar but had already invested in downside protection for future purchases. Despite this, the net cost was minimal, showcasing the flexibility of the Price Protection Guarantee.


Conclusion

The adoption of Hedgify's Price Protection Guarantee transformed this baker's approach to sugar procurement, offering a robust yet flexible strategy that yielded substantial financial and operational benefits. Hedgify's innovative solution empowers businesses to navigate market volatility effectively, allowing them to focus on their core competencies and thrive even in uncertain times.


The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.

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