As per USDA WASDE, the U.S. corn outlook for 2024/25 has been revised downward this month, with forecasts indicating lower production and reduced ending stocks, while global coarse grain production remains largely stable with varied shifts in trade and stock levels.
U.S. corn production is projected to fall to 15.1 billion bushels, with ending stocks reduced to 1.9 billion bushels.
Global coarse grain production remains stable at 1.500 billion tons, with increased corn production in select foreign markets.
Global corn ending stocks are expected to decline by 2.4 million tons to 304.1 million, led by reduced stocks in China.
U.S. corn production is forecasted at 15.1 billion bushels, a decrease of 60 million bushels from last month due to a reduction in yield to 183.1 bushels per acre. Harvested area remains unchanged at 82.7 million acres. With total usage holding steady at 15.0 billion bushels and no increase in supply, ending stocks are expected to drop to 1.9 billion bushels. The season-average price for corn remains stable at $4.10 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production is projected fractionally lower at 1.500 billion tons. Foreign corn production is expected to increase, with gains in Uganda, Malawi, Belarus, Mozambique, Kenya, and Cameroon partially offset by declines in Mexico, Turkey, and the EU. In Mexico, corn production expectations are lowered due to a reduced winter crop area. Meanwhile, foreign barley production has been revised downward, reflecting lower yields in Russia, though Kazakhstan’s output has increased slightly.
Significant adjustments to global corn trade include decreased export forecasts for Brazil and South Africa, with offsetting increases in exports from Burma and Uganda. Corn imports are projected lower for China and Malawi but higher for Mexico, Vietnam, Turkey, and Peru. Russian barley exports have been reduced. Global corn ending stocks are expected to decline by 2.4 million tons to 304.1 million tons, largely due to a significant stock reduction in China, partially offset by increases in Mexico, Uganda, and Canada.
With declining corn production and reduced stocks both domestically and globally, businesses reliant on corn supplies should consider proactive strategies to navigate potential price shifts and supply limitations. Hedgify’s platform offers tools to manage the impact of these fluctuations and safeguard against potential market volatility.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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