In the latest dairy market insights, the milk production forecast for 2023 remains unchanged from the previous month. However, the outlook for 2024 shows a reduction due to lower dairy cow inventories and slower growth in milk per cow. The export landscape is also experiencing shifts, with reductions in both fats and skim-solids basis exports for 2023. Factors such as lower butter and cheese shipments and decreased exports of whey products are contributing to these changes. Nonetheless, higher nonfat dry milk (NDM) exports partially offset the decline. Looking ahead to 2024, fat basis exports are expected to decrease further due to anticipated weakness in butter sales, while skim-solids basis export reductions are driven by lower expected lactose exports.
The dairy market's import dynamics for 2023 show unchanged fat basis imports, with offsetting changes in various products. However, skim-solids imports are slightly lowered, specifically due to reduced milk protein concentrates. As for price trends, the forecasts for cheese, NDM, and whey in 2023 are lower due to ample supplies and international competition in those markets. On the other hand, the price of butter remains unchanged. These shifts in prices affect the Class III and Class IV milk price forecasts for 2023, with Class III prices reduced due to weaker cheese and whey prices, and Class IV prices reflecting lower NDM prices. The all milk price forecast for 2023 has been adjusted to $19.55 per cwt.
In 2024, the dairy market is expected to continue experiencing fluctuations. The price forecasts for cheese, NDM, and whey are lower than the previous month's forecast, while the butter price shows an increase. Consequently, the Class III milk price for 2024 has declined, reflecting the impact of weaker cheese and whey prices. However, the Class IV price forecast remains unchanged, as the lower NDM price is offset by the higher butter price. Overall, the all milk price forecast for 2024 has been lowered to $19.10 per cwt.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
Comments