The latest USDA forecast for 2025 projects lower U.S. milk production, as reduced output per cow more than offsets a slight increase in cow inventories. Dairy imports remain unchanged on a fat basis but are reduced on a skim-solids basis. Meanwhile, exports are revised downward on both measures, with lower fat-basis exports driven by declining cheese shipments, and skim-solids exports impacted by weaker demand for cheese, dry skim milk products, and lactose. In contrast, domestic dairy consumption is expected to increase on both a fat and skim-solids basis.
U.S. milk production is reduced as lower output per cow outweighs a slightly larger herd.
Exports decline for cheese, dry skim milk products, and lactose, while domestic dairy consumption rises.
Dairy prices weaken, with lower forecasts for cheese, butter, NDM, and whey, leading to an all-milk price reduction to $21.60 per cwt.
Dairy product prices are trending lower across key categories, including cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey, following weaker recent pricing trends. The Class III milk price is lowered due to weaker cheese and whey prices, while the Class IV price is revised downward as butter and NDM prices decline. The all-milk price for 2025 is now projected at $21.60 per cwt, reflecting a weaker pricing environment.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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