The USDA's latest WASDE report projects lower U.S. milk production for both 2024 and 2025, driven by smaller cow inventories and slower growth in milk yield per cow. Despite reduced milk supply, strong domestic and international demand for dairy products like cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) is expected to push prices higher.
U.S. milk production is projected to decline in both 2024 and 2025 due to lower cow inventories and slower milk yield growth.
Dairy product prices, including cheese, butter, and NDM, are expected to rise, pushing the all-milk price to $23.05 per cwt in 2024 and $23.45 per cwt in 2025.
Global demand for dairy products supports higher fat-basis imports and exports, but skim-solids export competitiveness is expected to weaken in 2025.
Milk production is forecast to decline for both 2024 and 2025 due to lower cow inventories and slower growth in milk yield per cow. The reduced supply contributes to stronger dairy product prices, with cheese, butter, NDM, and whey prices all projected to rise in response to tighter market conditions.
Fat-basis imports for 2024 are raised based on strong demand for butter and cheese, while imports for 2025 are also expected to increase due to tighter domestic milk supplies. Skim-solids basis exports are forecast to drop in 2025, driven by weaker price competitiveness in the international market, although fat-basis exports remain unchanged.
The all-milk price for 2024 is forecast to rise to $23.05 per cwt, reflecting higher prices for cheese, butter, and other dairy products. With tight milk supplies continuing into 2025, the all-milk price forecast is further raised to $23.45 per cwt, supported by firm demand and increasing prices for key dairy commodities.
The U.S. dairy market is facing reduced milk production but strong demand, especially for butter, cheese, and NDM, is expected to keep prices elevated through 2025. Tighter supplies and rising import levels further underline the potential for continued upward price pressure in the near term.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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