The USDA’s latest WASDE report outlines a slightly tightened U.S. corn outlook for the 2024/25 season due to reduced supplies and lower ending stocks. Meanwhile, global coarse grain production, including corn, is forecast to decline, driven by lower output in several key regions. Despite this, trade activity remains relatively stable.
U.S. corn production for 2024/25 is forecast to increase to 15.2 billion bushels, with ending stocks falling by 16 million bushels.
Global coarse grain production is projected to decline by 1.8 million tons, driven by lower output in the EU, Russia, and Serbia.
Global corn ending stocks are expected to decrease by 1.8 million tons to 308.4 million tons, with significant reductions in China.
The U.S. corn supply for 2024/25 is projected to decrease due to lower beginning stocks. Although production is forecast to rise slightly to 15.2 billion bushels due to improved yields, ending stocks are expected to fall by 16 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels. The season-average corn price is lowered to $4.10 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to decrease by 1.8 million tons to 1.502 billion tons, primarily due to declines in the EU, Russia, Ghana, and Serbia. Global corn ending stocks are projected to decline by 1.8 million tons to 308.4 million, with a 1.4 million-ton reduction in foreign stocks, mainly driven by lower stocks in China.
Although global coarse grain trade remains mostly stable, significant shifts are expected in corn trade. Increased corn exports are forecast for Tanzania and Canada, while the EU, Russia, and Serbia are expected to see reductions. Corn imports are projected to rise for the EU, Mexico, India, and Thailand but fall for China, Canada, and Iran.
The combination of reduced U.S. beginning stocks and global production declines signals tighter market conditions for corn, with reduced ending stocks both domestically and internationally. However, steady trade flows are helping to stabilize the market despite supply-side challenges.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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