The latest USDA report indicates that the U.S. corn outlook for 2024/25 remains unchanged from the previous month, with the season-average farm price holding steady at $4.35 per bushel.
U.S. corn prices remain unchanged at $4.35 per bushel, while global coarse grain production is forecast to rise by 3.2 million tons.
Corn production increases in India, Russia, and Ukraine, but declines in South Africa and Mexico; Australia’s barley output is up, while Argentina’s is down.
Global corn ending stocks fall to 288.9 million tons, with reductions in China and Argentina partially offset by increases in Russia and India.
Globally, coarse grain production is forecasted to rise by 3.2 million tons to 1.496 billion tons, driven by higher foreign corn output. Increased production in India, Russia, and Ukraine offsets declines in South Africa and Mexico. India’s upward revision is attributed to expanded planting and strong yield prospects following an exceptional kharif monsoon season. Russia's production is also raised based on Rosstat data, while Ukraine's increase is supported by updated harvest figures. However, Mexico’s winter corn yield estimates have declined, though this is partially counterbalanced by a larger summer corn area. Additionally, Australia’s barley production is up, while Argentina's is revised downward.
Trade expectations for coarse grains are mixed. Corn exports are reduced for Brazil and South Africa, with Brazil’s 2023/24 marketing year exports lowered due to slower shipments, though this is offset by an increase in Argentina’s exports. On the import side, China and Taiwan are set to import less corn, whereas Turkey, Vietnam, Colombia, and Egypt will increase their purchases. In the barley market, exports from Australia, Russia, and Turkey are raised, while Argentina’s are lowered. Iran and Iraq are expected to import more barley.
Global corn ending stocks are projected at 288.9 million tons, down 1.4 million tons from last month. This decline is largely driven by reductions in China and Argentina, although increased stocks in Russia and India offer some offset.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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