The latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report highlights significant adjustments in the U.S. and global corn markets for the 2024/25 marketing year.
U.S. corn ending stocks are cut by 58 million bushels to 2.0 billion due to lower beginning stocks and higher exports, despite increased production.
Global coarse grain production decreases by 2.3 million tons, mainly from lower outputs in Ukraine, Egypt, Russia, and the Philippines.
Reduced exports from Ukraine and Russia and changes in import demands indicate potential market volatility ahead.
The U.S. corn outlook for 2024/25 projects smaller supplies, increased exports, and reduced ending stocks. Beginning stocks are lowered by 52 million bushels based on the Grain Stocks report. Corn production is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, an increase of 17 million bushels from last month due to a slight yield improvement to 183.8 bushels per acre. Harvested area remains unchanged at 82.7 million acres. Total use is raised slightly to 15.0 billion bushels, reflecting greater exports. With supply falling and use rising, ending stocks are cut by 58 million bushels to 2.0 billion. The season-average corn price remains steady at $4.10 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to decrease by 2.3 million tons to 1.500 billion tons. The foreign coarse grain outlook indicates lower production, reduced trade, and essentially unchanged stocks compared to last month. Foreign corn production is down due to declines in Ukraine, Egypt, Russia, and the Philippines, partially offset by an increase in India, where higher yields compensate for reduced area. Foreign barley production is also down, with cuts in Russia, the EU, and the United Kingdom partially offset by increases in Argentina and India.
Major global coarse grain trade changes include lower corn exports from Ukraine and Russia, with an increase from the United States. Corn imports are reduced for China and Iran but raised for Egypt and the Philippines. Foreign corn ending stocks are slightly reduced to 255.8 million tons, mainly reflecting a reduction in China, partially offset by increases in Argentina and Mexico. World corn ending stocks are projected at 306.5 million tons, down 1.8 million tons.
The USDA report underscores a tightening of corn supplies both domestically and internationally. In the U.S., despite a slight increase in production due to improved yields, lower beginning stocks and increased exports contribute to reduced ending stocks. Globally, decreased production in key countries like Ukraine and Russia impacts overall supply, while shifting trade patterns reflect adjustments in both export and import markets. The reduction in global ending stocks signals potential volatility in the corn market moving forward.
In light of these developments, businesses can mitigate risks from corn market fluctuations by leveraging Hedgify's platform to secure stable pricing and protect against future uncertainties.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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