The latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report reveals subtle shifts in the U.S. and global oilseed markets for the 2024/25 marketing year. While U.S. production experiences a slight decline, the global outlook presents a nuanced picture due to varying regional developments.
U.S. oilseed production is forecast to decrease slightly to 134.4 million tons, with soybean yields reduced to 53.1 bushels per acre.
Global oilseed production sees a marginal increase to 552.9 million tons due to higher sunflower seed and cottonseed output, offsetting declines in rapeseed and soybeans.
Global soybean ending stocks rise to 134.6 million tons, reflecting higher stocks in China, Argentina, and Brazil despite reductions in other regions.
U.S. oilseed production for 2024/25 is forecast at 134.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons from last month. This drop is attributed to lower production of soybeans, cottonseed, peanuts, and sunflower seed, partially offset by higher canola production. Specifically, soybean production is projected at 4.6 billion bushels, down 4 million bushels due to a reduced yield of 53.1 bushels per acre, a slight decline of 0.1 bushels from the September forecast. Despite the lower production, ending stocks remain unchanged at 550 million bushels, as decreased output is offset by slightly higher beginning stocks and steady exports and crush rates. The season-average soybean price holds steady at $10.80 per bushel.
Globally, oilseed production for 2024/25 is increased by 0.2 million tons to 552.9 million tons. This modest rise is mainly due to higher sunflower seed and cottonseed production, particularly in Argentina and Moldova, driven by expanded planting areas. However, this increase is partly countered by lower rapeseed production in the EU, Moldova, and Ukraine due to reduced acreage and harvest outcomes, as well as decreased soybean production in Ukraine. Additionally, palm oil production estimates for Indonesia for 2022/23 and 2023/24 have been revised downward based on domestic data and lower-than-expected export figures.
Global soybean exports for 2024/25 are lowered by 0.1 million tons to 181.5 million tons, primarily due to reduced exports from Ukraine. Soybean imports and crush are also decreased for Thailand. Global soybean ending stocks are up by 0.1 million tons to 134.6 million tons, with higher stocks in China, Argentina, and Brazil offsetting reductions in Ukraine, Turkey, and Iran. These adjustments reflect shifting trade patterns and regional production variations affecting global supply and demand.
The USDA report indicates a nuanced global oilseed market, with marginal declines in U.S. production balanced by slight increases internationally. The stability of U.S. ending stocks despite lower production suggests a buffer against domestic supply concerns. However, regional disparities in global production and trade, including decreased exports from Ukraine and revised production estimates in Indonesia, may introduce volatility and warrant close monitoring by market participants.
Amid these subtle market fluctuations, businesses can proactively manage oilseed price risks by leveraging Hedgify's platform to secure stable pricing and hedge against future uncertainties.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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