The USDA’s September WASDE report outlines a slightly reduced outlook for U.S. soybean production and stocks in the 2024/25 season. Globally, oilseed production is forecast to decrease, with notable reductions in rapeseed and sunflower seed output across several regions, while soybean trade and ending stocks experience modest increases.
U.S. soybean production for 2024/25 is projected to fall by 3 million bushels, with ending stocks down by 10 million bushels to 550 million.
Global oilseed production is forecast to decrease by 2.8 million tons, mainly due to lower rapeseed and sunflower seed output.
Global soybean trade is expected to increase to 181.6 million tons, with ending stocks rising slightly to 134.6 million tons.
U.S. soybean production for 2024/25 is projected to decrease by 3 million bushels to 4.6 billion, with ending stocks falling by 10 million bushels to 550 million. Despite these changes, the season-average soybean price remains unchanged at $10.80 per bushel, with soybean meal and oil prices steady at $320 per short ton and 42 cents per pound, respectively.
Global oilseed production is expected to decrease by 2.8 million tons to 552.7 million tons, mainly due to lower rapeseed and sunflower seed production in the EU, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Moldova. However, global soybean production is forecast to rise by 0.6 million tons, driven by increases in Paraguay and Canada.
Global soybean trade for 2024/25 is projected to increase to 181.6 million tons, with higher exports from Paraguay and increased imports for Argentina. Meanwhile, global ending soybean stocks are forecast to rise slightly by 0.3 million tons to 134.6 million, with higher stocks in Argentina and Canada offset by declines in the U.S. and the EU.
The U.S. soybean market continues to tighten, with lower beginning stocks and production contributing to reduced ending stocks. Globally, oilseed production faces challenges, but increased soybean trade and higher ending stocks in certain regions help stabilize the market outlook.
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