The 2024/25 U.S. rice market forecast reflects slight adjustments in supply dynamics, maintaining stability in domestic use and exports, while globally, the rice sector anticipates larger supplies, enhanced consumption, and an increase in trade and ending stocks.
U.S. rice supplies for 2024/25 are slightly reduced, with ending stocks projected at 44.5 million cwt, maintaining stable domestic use and export levels.
The global rice market for 2024/25 anticipates larger supplies and increased consumption, with ending stocks projected to rise significantly, influenced by adjustments in major rice-producing countries.
For the U.S. rice sector, the outlook this month indicates a marginal reduction in supplies due to lower beginning stocks, which results from an upward revision in 2023/24 exports by 1.0 million cwt to 95.0 million cwt. This increase underscores the continued competitiveness of U.S. rice exports, particularly in the Western Hemisphere, despite recent harvests from South American competitors. With no changes forecasted in domestic use or exports for 2024/25, the reduced supply directly impacts ending stocks, which are now projected at 44.5 million cwt, still showing a 12 percent increase from the previous year. The season-average price for all rice classes remains stable at $15.60 per cwt.
Globally, the rice outlook for 2024/25 is marked by increased supplies, which are raised by 1.9 million tons to 704.4 million, primarily due to higher initial stocks from India following upward revisions in its 2023/24 crop estimates. World consumption for the 2024/25 season is adjusted slightly higher to 526.4 million tons, with increases in consumption for Kenya and the Philippines offsetting a decrease in Pakistan. Trade projections are also slightly higher, with a 0.1 million ton increase to 53.9 million, largely due to increased exports from Pakistan. The global ending stocks are anticipated to rise by 1.9 million tons to 178.0 million, with significant contributions from increased stocks in India and the Philippines, which more than offset reductions in Pakistan and Vietnam.
The U.S. rice market is navigating through a period of minor supply adjustments with maintained stability in market operations and price levels. Internationally, the global rice market is experiencing a positive adjustment in supply and demand dynamics, leading to increased stocks and slightly enhanced trade activities. These adjustments reflect broader global agricultural trends and the strategic responses of key rice-producing nations.
For stakeholders looking to manage risks associated with the volatility in the rice market, Hedgify offers tailored risk management solutions that can help optimize operations and financial outcomes in this evolving market landscape.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
Kommentarer