The latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report reveals significant developments in the U.S. and global rice markets for the 2024/25 marketing year.
U.S. rice production is slightly increased to 219.8 million cwt due to higher yields, leading to a 16% rise in ending stocks to 45.7 million cwt.
Global rice supplies are projected to reach 710.3 million tons, mainly due to India's record production of 142.0 million tons following favorable monsoon conditions.
India's export policy shifts have raised global rice trade projections by 2.2 million tons to 56.5 million tons, impacting export dynamics for major competitors.
The U.S. rice outlook for 2024/25 anticipates slightly larger supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and marginally higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised due to higher production, with imports remaining unchanged. The NASS October Crop Production report increased 2024/25 production by 0.1 million cwt to 219.8 million cwt, driven by a higher average yield now forecasted at 7,590 pounds per acre, up 2 pounds from last month. Long-grain rice production is forecast at 166.8 million cwt, while combined medium- and short-grain production stands at 53.0 million cwt. Projected ending stocks are raised by 0.1 million cwt to 45.7 million cwt, marking a 16% increase from the previous year. The season-average farm price remains unchanged at $15.60 per cwt.
Globally, the 2024/25 outlook points to higher supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Global supplies are raised by 5.6 million tons to 710.3 million tons, primarily due to larger beginning stocks and record production in India, which is projected at 142.0 million tons. Factors contributing to India's record output include an above-average monsoon season and increased rice planting at the expense of cotton. World consumption is raised by 0.6 million tons to a record 528.1 million tons, with increases in several countries offsetting a 1.0-million-ton reduction for India. Projected world ending stocks are increased by 5.0 million tons to 182.2 million tons, mainly due to higher stocks in India, which are up 4.0 million tons to a record 43.0 million tons.
Global rice trade for 2024/25 is projected to rise by 2.2 million tons to 56.5 million tons, driven by larger exports from India, which are increased by 3.0 million tons to 21.0 million tons. This surge follows the removal of several export restrictions by India, including its ban on non-basmati white rice at the end of September. As a result, exports from Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam are reduced, having previously experienced larger exports in 2023/24 in response to India's restrictions. These adjustments highlight shifting trade patterns in the global rice market.
The USDA report indicates a significant expansion in global rice supplies, largely influenced by record production and policy changes in India. The U.S. market sees modest increases in production and ending stocks, providing a stable domestic outlook. However, the shifts in global trade dynamics, particularly India's re-entry into the export market, may introduce new competitive pressures and potential volatility in international rice prices.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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