The USDA’s December 2024 report highlights a mixed outlook for the U.S. and global oilseed markets, driven by adjustments in soybean oil production, trade, and pricing. Here are the key findings shaping the market landscape.
U.S. soybean oil exports are projected at 1.1 billion pounds, with domestic soybean prices lowered to $10.20 per bushel.
Global soybean production rises to 427.1 million tons, with increased output in Argentina, Bolivia, and Canada offsetting declines in rapeseed production.
Palm oil exports drop by 1.4 million tons, tightening global vegetable oil stocks, which fall 7% year-over-year to 27.9 million tons.
Global oilseed production is revised upward, driven by a 1.7 million-ton increase in soybean output, now forecasted at 427.1 million tons. This growth stems from expanded planting in Argentina and Bolivia and improved yields in Canada. However, global rapeseed production is lowered by 1.1 million tons due to reduced Canadian yields. The soybean crush is raised by 1.0 million tons for Argentina, boosting exports of soybean meal and oil. Imports of soybean meal increase in the EU, Algeria, Iran, and Venezuela, signaling strong demand for derived products.
Global soybean oil exports rise by 0.6 million tons to 12.6 million tons, led by higher shipments from Argentina, Brazil, and the United States. Meanwhile, palm oil exports fall by 1.4 million tons to 46.6 million tons due to supply constraints in Indonesia and Malaysia. Global vegetable oil ending stocks decline by 2% month-on-month to 27.9 million tons, marking a 7% year-over-year reduction.
With U.S. soybean oil exports climbing and global vegetable oil supplies tightening, businesses face a shifting landscape where strategic hedging tools can safeguard against price volatility.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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