The latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report reveals significant shifts in both U.S. and global wheat markets for the 2024/25 marketing year.
U.S. wheat supplies for 2024/25 are reduced by 6 million bushels to 2,783 million, with production down by 11 million bushels to 1,971 million.
Global wheat supplies decrease by 1.9 million tons to 1,060.3 million, primarily due to lower production in the EU, Russia, India, and Brazil.
Projected global ending stocks for 2024/25 rise by 0.5 million tons to 257.7 million but remain the lowest since the 2015/16 season.
U.S. wheat supplies for 2024/25 are reduced by 6 million bushels to 2,783 million, attributed to lower beginning stocks and a production decrease of 11 million bushels to 1,971 million, as reported in the NASS Small Grains Annual Summary released on September 30. Imports are raised by 10 million bushels to 115 million due to a strong import pace in the first three months of the marketing year. Domestic use is increased by 10 million bushels to 120 million on higher feed and residual use, with the NASS Grain Stocks report indicating a year-over-year increase in first-quarter disappearance. Projected ending stocks are lowered by 16 million bushels to 812 million but remain up 17% from the previous year. The season-average farm price holds steady at $5.70 per bushel.
Globally, the wheat outlook for 2024/25 points to reduced supplies, consumption, and trade but slightly higher ending stocks. Supplies are lowered by 1.9 million tons to 1,060.3 million, mainly due to decreased production in the EU, Russia, India, and Brazil. These declines are partially offset by higher production in Ukraine and increased beginning stocks in Russia. Global consumption is down by 2.4 million tons to 802.5 million, with reductions in food, seed, and industrial use in India and Afghanistan. Projected global ending stocks are raised by 0.5 million tons to 257.7 million but are still the lowest since the 2015/16 season.
World trade is decreased by 0.7 million tons to 215.8 million, driven by reduced exports from the EU, partially offset by an increase from Ukraine. U.S. exports remain unchanged at 825 million bushels despite several offsetting by-class changes. The adjustments in export figures reflect shifting trade patterns amid global supply constraints.
The USDA report underscores a tightening in wheat supplies both domestically and internationally, influenced by lower production levels and heightened domestic use. While U.S. ending stocks are lowered, they still represent a significant 17% increase over the previous year, providing a cushion against supply uncertainties. Globally, despite a slight increase in ending stocks, the overall levels are the lowest in nearly a decade, signaling potential volatility in the wheat markets ahead.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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