Goldman Sachs has adjusted its outlook for copper markets, citing weaker-than-expected economic data from China and an increase in global copper inventories. The bank has lowered its 2025 copper price forecast by nearly $5,000 per ton and has exited its long-standing bullish position on the base metal. These changes reflect evolving market conditions and uncertainties that have emerged over recent months.
Goldman Sachs has revised its 2025 copper price forecast from $15,000 to $10,100 per ton due to weaker Chinese demand and rising global inventories.
China’s slower economic recovery and increased copper exports have shifted the market dynamics, delaying the anticipated copper rally.
LME Asia copper inventories have reached their highest levels since 2016, reflecting a significant change in global copper stock levels.
Copper production has remained elevated despite challenges in key copper-producing countries, contributing to rising global copper inventories. LME Asia copper inventories have surged to their highest levels since 2016, reflecting a shift from previous expectations of significant inventory depletion in 2024.
The economic slowdown in China has significantly impacted global copper demand, with apparent copper consumption in China dropping year-over-year. The oversupply situation has been exacerbated by China exporting higher levels of refined copper into global markets, further delaying the anticipated copper rally.
Goldman Sachs has delayed its forecast for a copper price rally to post-2025, lowering its 2025 target to $10,100 per ton, down from a previous estimate of $15,000. The bank cites a combination of increased global inventories, weaker-than-expected demand from China, and ongoing challenges in the global copper market as reasons for this revised outlook.
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