In this report, we delve into the latest updates on the red meat, poultry, and egg markets for 2024, highlighting revisions in production forecasts and trade expectations. The analysis draws from recent adjustments to historical supply and use estimates, informed by updated data on slaughter, inventory, cold storage, and production levels.
2024 forecasts for red meat and poultry production are increased due to higher beef, pork, and broiler outputs, offsetting a decline in turkey production, with beef and pork benefiting from adjustments in slaughter rates and broilers from lower feed costs.
Trade adjustments for 2024 show a rise in beef imports and pork exports, a decrease in broiler exports due to weakened demand in Asia, and an increase in turkey exports, with egg trade forecasts remaining unchanged.
Price projections for 2024 indicate higher cattle prices across all quarters due to firm demand, increased hog prices in the second and third quarters, stable broiler prices, higher turkey prices in the first quarter, and lower egg prices in the first quarter.
For 2024, overall production of red meat and poultry is anticipated to increase, driven by higher beef, pork, and broiler outputs which more than compensate for a decrease in turkey production. Beef production is expected to grow due to an increase in slaughter activities in later quarters, despite a slow start in Q1. The pork production forecast has been revised upwards, reflecting a faster-than-expected slaughter pace in the first quarter, though this is partially mitigated by slightly lower weights. Broiler production is set to rise, bolstered by early-year data and the prospect of lower feed costs enhancing production. Conversely, turkey output is projected to decline in the first half of 2024, based on the latest data.
The beef import forecast for 2024 sees an uptick based on recent trade figures, although export predictions remain static. Pork exports are expected to increase, supported by robust shipments to key markets. Broiler export forecasts have been adjusted downwards due to anticipated demand softness in Asia, while turkey exports are expected to rise, following the latest trade data. Egg trade projections for 2024 are unchanged.
Market price projections for 2024 show an upward trend for cattle across all quarters, reflecting strong recent sales and sustained demand. Hog prices are also revised upwards for the second and third quarters, thanks to ongoing demand strength. However, broiler prices remain unchanged from previous estimates. Turkey prices for Q1 are increased, aligning with the latest market data and anticipated production cuts. Egg prices for the first quarter have been adjusted down, following recent market trends.
In conclusion, the dynamic shifts in the 2024 forecasts for red meat, poultry, and egg markets reflect a complex interplay of factors influencing production, trade, and pricing. For businesses navigating these volatile markets, Hedgify offers a strategic advantage. By locking in prices for key commodities, businesses can protect themselves against the unpredictability of market fluctuations, ensuring stability and predictability in their operations.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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