According to the USDA WASDE report the U.S. and global wheat outlook for the 2024/25 marketing year points to a slight increase in supplies and stocks but mixed demand and pricing trends.
U.S. wheat supplies are projected to increase to 815 million bushels, with imports rising by 5 million bushels.
Global wheat production is forecasted to reach 1,061.0 million tons, with a notable increase in Kazakhstan's output.
World wheat ending stocks are expected to decrease slightly to 257.6 million tons, with reduced exports from Turkey and Kazakhstan.
U.S. wheat supplies are projected to increase, with imports raised by 5 million bushels, reaching 120 million bushels, predominantly in Hard Red Spring wheat. Domestic use is also up, driven by a higher food-use projection based on the latest NASS Flour Milling Products report. Exports remain steady at 825 million bushels. Projected ending stocks are expected to grow by 3 million bushels, bringing the total to 815 million, a 17% increase from the prior year. The season-average farm price was adjusted down by $0.10 to $5.60 per bushel, reflecting recent NASS price data and anticipated market trends.
On a global scale, wheat supplies are forecasted to rise by 0.7 million tons, reaching 1,061.0 million tons. This uptick is attributed to a significant increase in Kazakhstan's production, now projected at 18 million tons—the country’s third-largest crop on record. This increase offsets production declines in Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and the EU. Global consumption is also set to increase slightly by 0.9 million tons to 803.4 million, mainly due to higher feed use in Kazakhstan. Global wheat trade, however, is expected to contract by 1.2 million tons, with exports reduced for Turkey and Kazakhstan.
Global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline slightly by 0.1 million tons to 257.6 million. Although stocks are expected to increase in Kazakhstan and Turkey, these gains do not fully offset the declines anticipated for Argentina, China, and Brazil.
As the wheat market adjusts to changes in supply and trade, businesses managing wheat costs will need to stay informed on fluctuating prices and stock levels.
Hedgify offers strategic solutions to manage the potential impacts of these market shifts on operational costs.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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