The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report provides a detailed update on the U.S. dairy market for 2024, covering aspects from production adjustments to international trade dynamics.
2024 U.S. milk production forecast is lowered due to slower growth in milk per cow, with unchanged cow numbers.
Fat basis imports for 2024 are raised on increased butter and cheese demand, while skim-solids basis exports decrease due to fewer lactose and whey shipments.
Butter prices are projected to increase in 2024 due to strong demand, while cheese, NDM, and whey prices decrease, influencing lower Class III and higher Class IV prices.
The forecast for U.S. milk production in 2024 has been revised downward, attributed to slower-than-expected growth in milk yield per cow, while cow numbers remain stable compared to previous estimates.
On the import side, 2024 fat-basis imports are expected to increase due to heightened demand for butter and cheese. Conversely, skim-solids basis imports are also projected to rise across various dairy products. Export forecasts are mixed, with fat-based exports expected to grow due to strong international demand for U.S. butter and competitively-priced cheese. However, skim-solids basis exports are forecasted to decline, as reduced shipments of lactose and whey products outweigh the increases in nonfat dry milk and cheese exports.
Butter prices are anticipated to increase, supported by robust demand and recent market trends. However, prices for cheese, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey are projected to decrease based on current market conditions. Consequently, Class III prices are lowered due to declining cheese and whey prices, while Class IV prices are increased, driven by higher butter prices which more than compensate for the lower NDM prices. The overall milk price for 2024 is projected at $20.90 per cwt, indicating a downward adjustment from previous forecasts.
The U.S. dairy market in 2024 is characterized by moderated milk production growth, dynamic shifts in import and export patterns, and mixed price movements across key dairy commodities.
The shifting dynamics in the dairy market as outlined in this report highlight the importance of Hedgify’s hedging solutions in providing stability and predictability for businesses impacted by these fluctuations.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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