The 2024/25 U.S. cotton market forecast reveals changes primarily in stock levels with the production, domestic use, and export figures remaining steady. A noticeable decrease in the season average upland farm price reflects recent trends in cotton futures, pointing towards underlying market dynamics affecting pricing and stock management.
U.S. cotton ending stocks for 2024/25 are revised upwards by 400,000 bales to 4.1 million, indicating a larger supply buffer.
Global cotton projections for 2024/25 reflect increased production and consumption, with world, ending stocks rising to 83.5 million bales.
The season average upland farm price for U.S. cotton is adjusted down to 70 cents per pound due to declining futures, showcasing market volatility and its impacts.
For the 2024/25 season, the U.S. cotton industry sees an increase in both beginning and ending stocks, marking a significant shift from the previous month's projections. Ending stocks are now estimated to be 400,000 bales higher at 4.1 million, representing 28 percent of total use. This adjustment indicates a buffer in supply that could influence market prices and availability.
Globally, the cotton market is also experiencing changes. The 2024/25 global cotton balance sheet shows increased beginning stocks, production, and consumption, with world trade remaining unchanged. These adjustments result in world ending stocks being projected at 83.5 million bales, an increase of 480,000 bales from the previous forecast. Notably, production gains are attributed to higher area and yield in Burma, while consumption adjustments are driven by increases in Vietnam and Burma.
The revisions in the U.S. cotton trade for the 2023/24 season reflect a slower pace in export shipments, leading to a 500,000-bale reduction in exports to 11.8 million. However, domestic use is slightly up by 50,000 bales. These adjustments provide insight into the responsiveness of the U.S. market to global trade flows and domestic demand conditions.
The reduction in the 2024/25 season average upland farm price to 70 cents per pound, down 4 cents from May, is a response to the decline in new-crop cotton futures, highlighting the market's sensitivity to international trade conditions and stock levels. These price adjustments, along with the stock increases, suggest a market preparing for potential volatility and competitive pressures.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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