India Becomes Top Rice Producer as U.S. Exports Shrink and Domestic Use Hits Record High

According to the USDA's April 2024 update, the 2024/25 U.S. rice outlook reveals modestly reduced supplies and exports alongside a record high in domestic use. Globally, the rice market is expanding, driven by record-breaking production in India and increasing trade volumes.

• U.S. rice domestic use hits a record 169.0 million cwt, while exports fall to 95.5 million cwt.

• Ending stocks in the U.S. are reduced to 44.5 million cwt due to lower imports and stronger domestic demand.

• India becomes the world’s top rice producer with a record 147.0 million tons, driving global trade to a new high of 60.6 million tons.

U.S. rice supplies are slightly down due to a decline in medium- and short-grain imports, largely because of slower shipments to Puerto Rico. Domestic use and residual for long-grain rice has surged by 3.0 million cwt to an all-time high of 169.0 million cwt. Meanwhile, ending stocks are revised down 2.5 million cwt to 44.5 million as the rise in consumption outpaces the modest export decline.

U.S. rice exports are forecast to fall by 1.5 million cwt to 95.5 million, driven by a 2.0 million cwt drop in long-grain shipments to the Western Hemisphere. However, this is partially offset by an increase in medium- and short-grain exports to Northeast Asia. Globally, rice trade is booming, with world exports expected to reach a record 60.6 million tons—thanks largely to India, whose exports are set to hit a record 24.5 million tons.

U.S. rice faces a mixed outlook: while exports soften, strong domestic demand is tightening ending stocks. On the global stage, India has overtaken China to become the world’s largest rice producer, with a record 147.0 million tons forecast for 2024/25. As consumption and trade also rise, world ending stocks increase to 183.2 million tons, supported by growth in Southeast Asia.

These developments highlight how strategic hedging solutions can help businesses navigate shifting supply chains and price movements in the global rice market.

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