The latest USDA report revises historical supply and use estimates for red meat, poultry, and eggs, reflecting updated slaughter, inventory, cold storage, and production data. For 2025, total red meat and poultry production is expected to rise, driven by increased beef and chicken output, while pork and turkey production is revised downward. Beef production is increasing as heavier dressed weights compensate for lower slaughter rates. Pork production is reduced due to slower slaughter in the first quarter, despite slightly heavier weights. Broiler production is raised based on improved returns and strong hatchery data, whereas turkey production is lowered due to weaker hatchery numbers. Egg production is also declining due to the impact of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), which has led to flock culling.
Beef and chicken production rise in 2025, while pork and turkey production decline; egg production is impacted by HPAI-related flock culling.
Beef exports are raised, while pork, broiler, and turkey exports are lowered due to tighter supplies and increased global competition.
Livestock and poultry prices trend lower, with reduced forecasts for cattle, hogs, broilers, turkeys, and eggs due to softer demand and lower-than-expected prices.
Trade forecasts for 2025 show mixed trends. Beef exports are revised higher, supported by increased domestic production, while beef imports are also rising due to strong demand for lean processing beef. Pork exports are lowered as tighter domestic supplies and increased global competition reduce shipments. Broiler exports are also revised downward, reflecting price competition from global exporters. Turkey exports are reduced in line with lower domestic supply expectations.
Price forecasts for livestock and poultry are generally weaker. Cattle prices are lowered for the first half of 2025 but remain stable for the second half as demand is expected to hold. Hog prices are reduced in the second and third quarters due to softer-than-expected demand. Broiler and turkey price forecasts are also revised downward due to weaker demand and lower expected prices in the first half of the year. Egg prices are declining as demand slows following an initial increase in response to HPAI-related production cuts.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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