The USDA’s latest 2024 and 2025 livestock, poultry, and dairy outlook reflects adjustments based on December production, stock, and trade data. Beef production for 2025 is raised, supported by higher cattle imports from Mexico, a larger 2024 calf crop, and higher placements throughout the year. Pork production is also increased, with higher weights offsetting a slower first-quarter slaughter rate.
Poultry and Egg Production Adjustments
Broiler production remains unchanged, with first-quarter Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling offset by a third-quarter production rebound.
Turkey production is lowered due to HPAI-related culling and weaker hatchery data.
Egg production is reduced in all quarters of 2025 due to HPAI-related losses, though a steady flock rebuild is expected in the second half of the year.
Trade and Export Outlook
Beef exports are raised on higher production and strong global demand, while imports remain steady.
Pork exports are lowered in the second half of 2025, reflecting slower growth in key markets.
Broiler and turkey exports are reduced, with broilers facing greater global competition and turkey exports declining due to lower domestic supply.
Price Forecasts
Cattle prices are raised across all four quarters, driven by strong beef demand.
Hog prices are up in Q1 due to recent market trends.
Broiler prices remain unchanged, with Q1 declines offset by higher expectations later in the year.
Turkey prices are lowered, reflecting weak demand.
Egg prices are raised in all four quarters, supported by HPAI-related supply constraints.
With higher beef and pork production, ongoing HPAI-related disruptions in poultry and eggs, and shifting global trade dynamics, market participants should closely monitor supply chain risks and price movements.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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