The latest 2024/25 rice outlook reflects steady U.S. supplies with higher ending stocks due to reduced export demand, while globally, record rice production in India drives an increase in world rice supplies.
U.S. rice exports are forecast to fall to 100 million cwt, with long-grain exports decreasing by 2 million cwt due to lower demand in Latin America.
World rice supplies are projected to rise to 713.1 million tons, driven by a record 145 million tons in production from India.
Global ending stocks are expected to grow by 0.5 million tons to 182.7 million, primarily due to increased stocks in India.
The U.S. rice market shows unchanged supply and domestic use projections, with exports adjusted down by 1 million cwt to a total of 100 million cwt. Long-grain rice exports dropped by 2 million cwt to 74 million due to weaker sales in Latin America. However, medium- and short-grain rice exports were raised by 1 million cwt to 26 million, driven by stronger demand in East Asia and the Middle East. As a result, U.S. rice ending stocks are projected to increase by 1 million cwt to 46.7 million cwt, marking a 19% rise from the previous year. The season-average farm price for rice remains unchanged.
World rice supplies are projected to grow by 2.8 million tons, reaching 713.1 million tons, primarily due to a record-breaking 145 million tons in Indian rice production, which is 7.2 million tons above last year’s record. This increase is attributed to favorable monsoon rainfall and supportive pricing, which encouraged record planting in the Kharif season.
Global domestic and residual use is expected to rise by 2.4 million tons to 530.5 million, reflecting increased demand from India, Guinea, and China. Global rice trade is set to expand by 0.5 million tons to 56.9 million tons, led by India’s export growth, though partially offset by lower exports from China. World ending stocks are expected to rise slightly by 0.5 million tons to 182.7 million, largely due to increased stockpiles in India.
As the U.S. rice market faces decreased export opportunities and increasing ending stocks, businesses in the rice supply chain may benefit from strategies to offset potential impacts from both domestic and global supply dynamics. Hedgify provides solutions to help businesses manage these shifts effectively.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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