The USDA's report provides valuable insights into the milk market for 2023 and 2024.
Milk production for 2024 is expected to decline slightly, influenced by reduced output per cow but offset by higher cow inventories. Domestic use is projected to increase, particularly in fat and skim-solids basis.
US Skim-solids basis exports are lowered due to strong domestic prices, while fat basis exports rise, driven by higher expected butter and cheese exports.
Prices for cheese, butter, NDM, and whey in 2024 are raised, reflecting recent price strength and tighter milk supplies. Class III and Class IV prices also increase, signaling potential opportunities for US dairy producers amidst evolving trade conditions.
Milk production for 2024 is anticipated to decrease due to lower expected output per cow, although this decline is partially offset by higher cow inventories. This adjustment reflects the evolving dynamics within the dairy industry. Domestic use on both fat and skim-solids basis is expected to increase, driven by a more rapid pace of disappearance in the fourth quarter of 2023 carrying over into 2024.
While US domestic use sees a boost, skim-solids basis exports are lowered to reflect the strength of domestic prices, indicating a shift in international trade dynamics for dairy products. These adjustments reflect the interconnectedness of global dairy markets.
Fat basis exports are raised, particularly for butter and cheese, as the United States is expected to be competitive on the international market for these products. This highlights opportunities for US dairy producers to capitalize on global demand. Conversely, fat basis imports are lowered, suggesting changes in trade patterns influenced by factors such as price competitiveness and domestic demand strength.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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