The 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook remains steady, maintaining the season average price at $4.40 per bushel, with upcoming USDA acreage reports anticipated to shed more light on planting and harvesting metrics. Globally, the coarse grain market faces minor production declines but shows resilience through slight increases in trade and adjustments in global stocks.
The U.S. corn market maintains a stable outlook for 2024/25 with a continued average price of $4.40 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production is projected to decrease slightly, with specific increases in corn production from Ukraine and Zambia offsetting other declines.
Notable trade adjustments include increased corn exports from Ukraine and Tanzania and heightened barley imports by China.
The U.S. corn market outlook for the 2024/25 season shows no changes from the previous month, holding the average price received by producers steady at $4.40 per bushel. Key details on planted and harvested areas, which could influence future market trends, are expected to be highlighted in the USDA's Acreage report due on June 28.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to decrease by 1.4 million tons to 1.511 billion tons. The reduction primarily stems from lower barley production in significant producers such as the EU, India, Argentina, Russia, and Ukraine, though partially mitigated by an increase in Australia. Conversely, foreign corn production sees a slight uptick, driven by enhanced outputs in Ukraine and Zambia, which counterbalance reductions in Russia.
Significant global trade shifts for 2024/25 include an increase in corn exports from Ukraine and Tanzania, contrasting with a decrease from Russia. Corn imports are expected to rise in Malawi, Zambia, and Mozambique, reflecting a growing demand in these regions. Additionally, barley trade dynamics are changing, with reduced exports from Argentina, Russia, and the EU, and increased exports from Australia. Barley imports by China are also on the rise.
Foreign corn ending stocks have decreased, largely due to reductions in South Africa, Russia, and Tanzania. The overall global corn ending stocks are projected at 310.8 million tons, down by 1.5 million tons from the previous forecast, indicating tighter global supplies moving forward.
Reviewing the prior year, 2023/24 corn exports have increased for South Africa, Russia, the EU, and Uruguay, suggesting robust trading activity despite global challenges.
Hedgify’s analytical and risk management solutions are well-suited to assist stakeholders in navigating the complexities of stable U.S. markets and the evolving global grain trade environment.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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