Soybean Crush Expands in U.S. While Global Ending Stocks Climb Amid Production Revisions

According to the USDA’s April 2024 update, the 2024/25 soybean outlook reveals stronger domestic crush demand in the U.S., driven by increased use of soybean meal and oil, while global markets reflect a shift toward higher exports, crush, and ending stocks, supported by revised South American production.

• U.S. soybean crush rises to 4.42 billion bushels, cutting ending stocks to 375 million.

• Global soybean exports reach 182.1 million tons, while crush demand increases to 354.8 million tons.

• World ending stocks are raised to 122.5 million tons, led by higher inventories in Brazil and the EU.

U.S. soybean crush is raised by 10 million bushels to 4.42 billion, primarily due to higher domestic soybean meal use and increased soybean oil exports. Soybean oil usage for biofuel has been revised down for the year so far, but expected to pick up due to import tariffs on competing feedstocks. As a result, ending stocks are now forecast at 375 million bushels, down 5 million. The average U.S. soybean price remains unchanged at $9.95 per bushel, while soybean meal falls to $300 per short ton and soybean oil rises slightly to 45 cents per pound.

U.S. soybean exports remain unchanged, but global exports are nudged up by 0.2 million tons to 182.1 million, driven by higher volumes from Canada and Nigeria. Crush demand is rising globally, with forecasts now at 354.8 million tons, reflecting increased activity in Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and the U.S. Soybean oil demand is growing even as overall global vegetable oil production is trimmed to 228.1 million tons, mainly due to a 1.3-million-ton drop in palm oil production across Southeast Asia.

The combination of stronger domestic crush, steady exports, and tighter U.S. ending stocks signals firm demand despite stable prices. Globally, the market is adjusting to revised output in Brazil—now at 154.5 million tons for 2023/24—while overall soybean production dips slightly. Still, ending stocks rise by 1.1 million tons to 122.5 million, largely due to increases in Brazil and the EU, indicating a generally well-supplied global market.

With growing reliance on soybean products across food, feed, and energy markets, volatility in production and trade flows reinforces the need for strategic risk management.

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