The 2024/25 outlook for U.S. soybeans signals robust growth across supplies, crush operations, exports, and ending stocks, driven by increased production areas and improved yields.
U.S. soybean production is projected to rise to 4.45 billion bushels in 2024/25, with total supplies increasing by 8 percent to 4.8 billion bushels.
Global soybean production is set to expand significantly, with Brazil's output alone expected to increase to 169.0 million tons.
The U.S. is forecasted to enhance its soybean exports by 125 million bushels, reaching 1.83 billion bushels despite increased global competition.
U.S. soybean production for 2024/25 is projected to reach 4.45 billion bushels, marking an increase of 285 million bushels due to expanded area and an uptrend in yield. This surge in production boosts total soybean supplies to approximately 4.8 billion bushels, an 8 percent increase from the previous year. The soybean crush is also expected to rise to 2.43 billion bushels, up 125 million from 2023/24, primarily fueled by heightened demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock. Soybean exports are set to grow by 125 million bushels to 1.83 billion, benefiting initially from a diminished Brazilian harvest in 2024, though facing competition from South American production in the following year.
On a global scale, the oilseed market, including soybeans, is experiencing substantial growth with total production forecasted at 687.1 million tons, an increase of 28.9 million tons. This growth is largely attributed to higher soybean outputs in Brazil, the United States, and South Africa. Brazil, in particular, is expected to recover strongly with a forecasted production of 169.0 million tons following adverse weather impacts the previous year. The global crush volume is set to increase by 17.3 million tons, predominantly driven by soybeans, indicating a rising demand for soy-derived products.
Internationally, soybean trade is witnessing a 4 percent increase, driven by the United States, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. China remains a significant importer with its soybean imports projected to rise by 4.0 million tons to 109.0 million, reflecting the country's substantial influence on global soy demand. Despite increased competition, U.S. soybean exports are expected to capture a 28 percent share of the global market, though slightly below the previous five-year average.
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