The U.S. sugar supply for 2022/23 has increased by 82,447 short tons, raw value (STRV) due to higher imports, partially offset by lower production, and reduced use by 75,000 STRV. As a result, the ending stocks for 2022/23 have risen by 157,447 STRV, bringing the total to 1,840,610 STRV, with an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14.45 percent. U.S. beet sugar production is estimated at 5,146,621 STRV, down by 24,185 STRV based on processors' estimates of their beet sugar from sliced beets. Cane sugar in Florida has also decreased by 31,987 STRV due to processor reporting. TRQ raw imports have increased by 137,789 STRV following USDA's recent announcement. However, there is no change in TRQ shortfall until USTR allocates country quotas. Re-export imports have been reduced by 125,000 STRV after reconciliations were completed by USDA and Custom and Border Protection (CBP). With greater sugar supply availability in Mexico, there is an import increase of 25,830 STRV. High-tier tariff imports have increased by 100,000 STRV to 350,000 due to a large raw sugar entry in June and higher expected refined sugar imports for the remainder of the fiscal year. The use has been reduced by 75,000 STRV to 12,740,000 based on a slowdown in deliveries for human consumption.
Looking ahead to 2023/24, the U.S. sugar supply is projected to increase by 291,502 STRV due to higher beginning stocks, larger beet sugar production, and increased imports. However, use is lowered by 75,000 STRV. As a result, the ending stocks for 2023/24 are projected to reach 1,719,260 STRV, with an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.50 percent. U.S. beet sugar production is expected to increase by 72,197 STRV to 5,021,759 based on NASS area planted and harvested in the Acreage report. TRQ imports are increased by 231,485 STRV following USDA's announcement of additional specialty refined sugar TRQ. Re-export imports are reduced by 125,000 STRV, and high-tier tariff imports are increased by 45,000 STRV to 165,000. An evaluation of U.S. Sugar Needs from exported Mexico sugar implies shipments of 1,485,900 STRV, which is a reduction of 89,627 STRV from last month. Mexico's sugar production for 2022/23 is reported at 5,224,239 metric tons (MT) as of June 18, with imports for consumption increased by 30,000 MT to 75,000 based on CONADESUCA reporting and other official data concerning exports to Mexico reported by other countries. Production for 2023/24 is projected to remain unchanged at 5,900,000 MT, with the use of greater fertilizer and input use expected to keep production higher than the previous year's performance despite severe drought conditions in the Pacific region and dryness in other areas.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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