The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report provides a nuanced view of the soybean market for the 2023/24 season.
U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 are increased by 25 million bushels to 340 million, with a reduction in imports, exports, and residual use, and a lower season-average price of $12.55 per bushel.
Global soybean production decreases due to drought in South Africa, with global exports down 0.5 million tons to 173.1 million, and nearly unchanged global ending stocks.
The U.S. and South Africa see reduced soybean exports, while Paraguay's exports increase, with global ending stocks balanced by varied adjustments in several countries.
The U.S. soybean market is experiencing a reduction in imports, exports, and residual use, leading to an increase in ending stocks. Specifically, ending stocks are forecasted to rise by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The season-average price for U.S. soybeans is projected at $12.55 per bushel, showing a decrease of 10 cents. Meanwhile, prices for soybean meal and oil remain steady at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively.
Globally, soybean production forecasts are adjusted downward, primarily due to drought conditions in South Africa, which have adversely affected yield potential. However, this is partially offset by an increase in Paraguay's production, which is up by 0.2 million tons to 10.5 million. Global soybean exports are reduced by 0.5 million tons to 173.1 million, influenced by lower exports from the United States and South Africa, though partly compensated by higher shipments from Paraguay.
Adjustments in global soybean trade include a reduction in exports, particularly from the U.S. and South Africa, and varying import adjustments across several countries. Despite these changes, global ending stocks remain nearly unchanged, with increased U.S. stocks offsetting reductions in Canada, Iran, and Russia.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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