The USDA’s latest 2024/25 U.S. sugar supply forecast has been reduced by 101,129 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.393 million, due to lower production and imports. Florida’s cane sugar production fell by 55,131 STRV due to lower sucrose recovery, while Louisiana’s output saw a modest increase of 6,001 STRV. Beet sugar production rose by 15,065 STRV, aided by increased output from desugared molasses.
U.S. sugar supply is reduced by 101,129 STRV, with lower cane sugar output in Florida and decreased TRQ imports.
Mexico’s sugar production falls to 4.859 million MT, with weaker sucrose recovery and a growing gap in harvested area.
U.S. sugar ending stocks decline to 1.912 million STRV, while Mexico’s total exports drop to 856,926 MT, though shipments to the U.S. remain steady.
The combined effect of these adjustments leads to a decrease in U.S. ending stocks by 26,129 STRV to 1.912 million, bringing the stocks-to-use ratio to 15.33%.
Mexico’s sugar production is projected at 4.859 million metric tons (MT), down from last month’s 5.094 million MT, due to lower sucrose recovery and reduced harvested area. Mexico’s total sugar exports are cut by 158,334 MT to 856,926 MT, while exports to the U.S. remain unchanged at 531,409 MT. Deliveries into the IMMEX program were reduced by 47,170 MT, as sweetener manufacturers increased HFCS usage.
With reduced U.S. and Mexico sugar production, lower consumption, and shifting import dynamics, market participants should stay alert to potential price volatility and trade policy adjustments.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.