The USDA’s December 2024 report outlines significant shifts in the U.S. and global corn markets, driven by strong ethanol production and robust export demand. Below are the key insights shaping the corn outlook.
U.S. corn used for ethanol is forecasted at 5.5 billion bushels, the highest level since 2017, and exports rise to 2.5 billion bushels.
Global coarse grain production is projected at 1.499 billion tons, with notable declines in the EU and Mexico partially offset by gains in Ukraine.
Global corn stocks are expected to drop by 7.7 million tons, reflecting tightening supplies and reduced inventories in China, the EU, and Indonesia.
The 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook reflects heightened ethanol production and export activity, leading to tighter ending stocks. Corn used for ethanol is raised by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion, marking the strongest September–November production since 2017. Exports are forecasted to rise by 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion, supported by steady sales and shipment trends. Consequently, U.S. corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average price remains unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is projected 0.6 million tons lower, at 1.499 billion tons, with reductions in corn output across several key regions. EU production decreases are driven by declines in Italy, Romania, Croatia, and Austria, partially balanced by gains in Poland, Spain, and France. Mexico’s corn production outlook has also been revised downward due to lower winter planting expectations. Meanwhile, Ukraine shows an uptick in production. Global ending stocks for corn are projected to fall by 7.7 million tons to 296.4 million.
U.S. and Canadian corn exports are on the rise, while EU exports face a downward revision. Import demand has strengthened in Bangladesh, the EU, Iran, and Mexico but weakened in China. These shifts underscore tightening supplies across the global corn market, with notable reductions in foreign ending stocks attributed to China, the EU, and Indonesia.
With U.S. corn exports and ethanol demand reaching multi-year highs, market participants must remain vigilant in managing risks tied to fluctuating global supplies and trade dynamics.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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