U.S. Corn Exports Surge While Global Ending Stocks Dip Amid Mixed Production Shifts

According to the USDA’s April 2024 update, the 2024/25 corn outlook for the U.S. shows a bullish trend in exports counterbalanced by lower feed use and ending stocks, while global markets reflect slightly lower production and tighter inventories.

• U.S. corn exports are up 100 million bushels, while feed use is cut to 5.8 billion bushels.

• Ending stocks drop to 1.5 billion bushels, despite the average farm price holding steady at $4.35 per bushel.

• Global corn ending stocks fall to 287.7 million tons, down 1.3 million from the previous forecast.

U.S. corn feed and residual use has been revised downward by 25 million bushels to 5.8 billion, based on Q1 disappearance data. In contrast, exports are projected to rise by 100 million bushels due to strong sales and competitive pricing. Ending stocks are now pegged at 1.5 billion bushels, down 75 million from last month. The average farm price remains steady at $4.35 per bushel.

U.S. corn exports are gaining ground internationally, with adjustments in global trade including higher imports for the EU, Mexico, Turkey, and Peru, and reduced exports from Pakistan. Notably, foreign corn ending stocks have increased, particularly in South Korea and Pakistan, even as global corn ending stocks fell by 1.3 million tons to 287.7 million.

The U.S. corn market is benefiting from its export competitiveness, though reduced feed usage tempers some of the gains. Globally, shifts in regional production—like increases in the EU and declines in Moldova and Kenya—underscore the patchy nature of corn supply. Despite this, ending stocks globally are tightening, reflecting a subtle yet significant market adjustment.

With export opportunities rising and inventories tightening, managing price risk becomes crucial for businesses reliant on corn and related products.

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