The latest USDA WASDE forecast for 2024 and 2025 U.S. red meat and poultry production reveals an increase in overall output, driven by higher beef, broiler, and turkey production, offset slightly by reduced pork production. Tight supplies and strong demand are expected to support higher prices across several protein categories into the next year.
U.S. beef, broiler, and turkey production are expected to rise in 2024, while pork production is forecast to decrease slightly.
Beef imports are up for 2024 and 2025, while broiler exports are reduced due to increased price competition from global exporters.
Strong demand and tight supplies are projected to support higher cattle, hog, turkey, and egg prices through early 2025.
For 2024, beef production is projected to rise due to higher dressed weights and increased cow slaughter. Broiler and turkey production forecasts are also increased, reflecting strong third-quarter data, while pork production is revised down due to a slower slaughter pace and slightly lighter weights in the fourth quarter. Egg production is lowered due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) culling, affecting the laying flock. In 2025, beef production is expected to remain strong, supported by higher slaughter rates and heavier weights. Pork production is forecast to decrease due to reduced slaughter expectations in early 2025, while broiler production is projected to increase based on hatchery data. Egg production will likely remain limited as the laying flock recovers.
The beef import forecast for 2024 is raised due to strong demand and increased shipments from Oceania and South America. This upward trend is expected to continue in 2025 as processing beef demand remains robust. Beef exports are revised higher for both years, supported by stronger global demand. Pork exports are adjusted upward for 2024 but are expected to decrease slightly in 2025 due to lower production and softer demand in some key markets. The broiler export forecast for both 2024 and 2025 is reduced, with price competition from exporters like Brazil affecting demand. Turkey export projections remain largely stable.
Cattle prices for 2024 and 2025 are raised, reflecting recent price strength and solid beef demand. Hog prices for 2024 and 2025 are also adjusted upward, supported by strong demand and tighter supplies expected in early 2025. Broiler prices are projected to rise through early 2025, influenced by higher cattle and hog prices. Turkey and egg prices for 2024 are forecast higher, with these increases extending into the first half of 2025 due to tight supplies and elevated recent prices.
With a combination of strong demand and tighter supplies in specific categories, U.S. meat and poultry markets are likely to see continued price support through 2025. Hedgify provides solutions for businesses to navigate and manage the impacts of these shifting prices and production levels effectively.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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