U.S. Meat and Poultry Outlook Mixed for 2025 Amid Shifting Production, Tariff Pressures

According to the USDA's April 2024 update, the 2025 outlook for U.S. red meat and poultry presents a nuanced landscape with lower overall production, shifting export dynamics, and varied pricing trends across the protein spectrum. Lower pork output contrasts with a slight beef production uptick, while trade barriers and tariffs weigh heavily on exports.

• Pork production is down for 2025, while beef output rises slightly due to heavier weights and increased cow slaughter.

• U.S. meat exports, especially beef and pork, are reduced due to tariffs and price competition, while egg imports rise.

• Cattle, broiler, and turkey prices are raised, but hog and egg prices are revised lower.

Total red meat and poultry production is revised downward for 2025, driven primarily by a decline in pork output due to lower slaughter and lighter weights. The March Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report supports this trend, with evidence of reduced pig crops and fewer farrowings expected throughout the year. In contrast, beef production is increased slightly on the back of heavier dressed weights and higher cow and bull slaughter, despite lower steer and heifer numbers. Broiler production is expected to rise due to better returns in the latter half of the year, while turkey and egg production are both lowered based on hatchery and inventory data.

U.S. meat exports are generally under pressure in 2025. Beef exports are reduced due to tariffs and non-tariff barriers in China, while beef imports are also revised down due to higher foreign tariff rates. Pork exports are cut on similar grounds, including intensified price competition and increased tariffs from China. Broiler and turkey exports are lowered on less competitive pricing and reduced supply, respectively. Egg imports are increased in response to recent trade activity.

Price trends across meat and poultry categories are diverging. Cattle and broiler prices are up on strong domestic demand and supportive Q1 data. Turkey prices are also higher due to tighter supply. In contrast, hog prices are expected to weaken despite a strong Q1 start, reflecting softening export demand. Egg prices are lowered with expectations of a recovering layer flock later in the year.

As global trade pressures reshape meat markets and production trends diverge, businesses can benefit from proactive hedging strategies to stabilize costs and manage supply risk.

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