The latest forecasts for the U.S. red meat and poultry production in 2024 indicate adjustments in production levels with varying impacts on specific sectors. These changes reflect recent developments in market conditions, animal health, and trade dynamics. The outlook extends into 2025 with expectations of continued adjustments in production and pricing.
U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2024 is adjusted upwards with specific increases noted in pork, broiler, and turkey sectors.
Egg production forecasts are lowered due to HPAI impacts.
Trade forecasts for 2024 show mixed adjustments with increased pork exports and reduced broiler exports.
Price forecasts for 2024 are revised based on recent market data and expected demand, with key adjustments carried forward into 2025 for cattle and eggs.
The total forecast for 2024 U.S. red meat and poultry production is revised upward from previous estimates. Beef production remains stable with minor adjustments in quarterly figures, balancing lower slaughter rates with higher dressed weights. Pork production for the second quarter is increased, driven by a more rapid pace of slaughter and slightly higher dressed weights, although no changes are forecast for other quarters. Broiler production is adjusted upward based on higher bird weights and recent hatchery data, while turkey production also sees an increase due to similar reasons. Conversely, the egg production forecast is reduced due to impacts from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) affecting commercial laying flocks.
For 2025, the production forecast for red meat and poultry is generally raised, with beef production seeing an increase due to higher expected placements in late 2024 and a faster pace of marketing during the first half of 2025. Dressed weights for beef are also expected to remain high.
Trade adjustments for 2024 include increased pork exports reflecting recent demand strength, while broiler export forecasts are reduced for both 2024 and 2025 due to expectations of relatively uncompetitive prices compared to other global exporters. Turkey exports are slightly raised for 2024 based on recent data.
In terms of pricing, the 2024 cattle price forecast is increased based on recent market trends, while hog prices for the second and third quarters are lowered. Broiler prices are revised upward due to expected demand strength, and turkey prices see a slight increase. Egg prices are adjusted higher due to reduced production forecasts. For 2025, the forecast carries forward the strength in cattle and egg prices into the early part of the year, with no changes to the price forecasts for hogs, broilers, or turkeys.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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