The updated U.S. sugar outlook for 2023/24 and preliminary figures for 2024/25 indicate production shifts and inventory adjustments, with ending stocks decreasing due to reduced imports and increased deliveries for human consumption.
U.S. sugar production for 2024/25 is reduced, with sugar beet and Louisiana cane yields lowered, leading to lower projected ending stocks at 1.464 million STRV.
U.S. imports are down for 2023/24 but slightly increased for 2024/25 due to higher high-tier raw sugar imports.
Mexico’s 2023/24 sugar imports under the IMMEX program are reduced, while 2024/25 exports not under license to the U.S. are raised by 73,829 MT.
For the 2023/24 period, U.S. sugar production is revised upward by 171,190 short tons, raw value (STRV), due to stronger-than-expected September production in beet sugar and cane sugar in Louisiana. However, 2024/25 projections show a decrease in sugar beet and Louisiana sugarcane yields. Sugar beet production is forecast to fall by 372,000 tons to 35.201 million tons, with sugar beet yield reduced to 32.7 tons per acre. Similarly, Louisiana’s sugarcane yield is reduced to 32.0 tons per acre, with cane production now projected at 15.846 million tons. As a result, total beet sugar production for 2024/25 is estimated at 5.210 million STRV, a 136,910 decrease, while national cane sugar production is forecasted at 4.066 million STRV, down 81,349 STRV from last month.
U.S. sugar imports are lowered by 89,030 STRV for 2023/24, mainly due to reduced re-export imports, though imports have been adjusted up by 12,968 STRV for 2024/25 due to increased high-tier raw sugar imports reported by CBP. Deliveries for human consumption in 2023/24 were raised by 53,540 STRV to reach 12.354 million STRV. This upward trend continues in 2024/25, with consumption projected at 12.350 million STRV. Ending stocks for 2023/24 are reported at 2.162 million STRV, translating to a 16.87% stocks-to-use ratio, while 2024/25 ending stocks are projected lower at 1.464 million STRV with an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 11.66%, down due to reduced production and steady demand.
For Mexico, 2023/24 sugar imports under the IMMEX program are reduced by nearly 100,000 metric tons (MT) based on CONADESUCA data, leading to a decrease in IMMEX deliveries. For 2024/25, imports are projected to increase by 70,755 MT as this sugar, booked in the prior year, is expected to arrive. Total projected exports from Mexico stand at 1.006 million MT, with licensed exports to the U.S. stable at 338,023 MT and non-licensed exports rising to 667,803 MT, an increase of 73,829 MT over the prior month’s estimates.
With lower production and increased demand for human consumption, U.S. sugar supplies are tightening, and ending stocks are projected to decrease, impacting overall availability. Hedgify offers businesses tools to navigate these potential cost pressures and protect against market volatility in the sugar sector.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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