U.S. Sugar Supplies Grow on Surging Imports Despite Dip in Domestic Output

The USDA’s April 2024 update on the FY 2024/25 U.S. sugar outlook highlights a notable increase in supply, driven by rising high-tier tariff imports and higher beginning stocks, which together more than offset a slight decline in domestic production.

• U.S. sugar supply increases to 14.461 million STRV, led by a surge in high-tier imports.

• Domestic production is cut by 39,316 STRV due to lower cane yields in Florida.

• Ending stocks rise to 2.016 million STRV with a 16.20% stocks-to-use ratio.

Total U.S. sugar supply is now forecast at 14.461 million short tons, raw value (STRV), an increase of 143,758 STRV from last month. This boost stems from strong import levels, including 261,758 STRV in raw high-tier tariff imports through early April—up 88,070 STRV from the prior month—and 237,104 STRV in refined high-tier imports. Domestic production was trimmed by 39,316 STRV due to lower sugarcane yields in Florida.

High-tier refined sugar imports are expected to slow in the latter half of the fiscal year due to elevated domestic inventories of refined beet and cane sugar, which may reduce import competitiveness. Monthly refined sugar entries for the remainder of the year are projected at 75% of the first-half average, bringing the total high-tier refined forecast to 414,931 STRV. Imports of molasses used in refining remain steady at 54,645 STRV in sugar-equivalent terms.

The increase in high-tier tariff imports is currently sustaining U.S. sugar supply levels, even as Florida's cane yields weaken. With no revisions in domestic use, the upward shift in supply pushes projected ending stocks to 2.016 million STRV, translating to a stocks-to-use ratio of 16.20%. Mexico’s sugar balance remains unchanged, maintaining stability in regional trade dynamics.

As sugar imports rise and production pressures fluctuate, businesses can benefit from tools that manage price and supply risks in the volatile sweetener market.

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