The latest USDA WASDE report presents a nuanced outlook for the U.S. sugar market. While the 2023/24 supply is projected to increase, supported by higher production and imports, the forecast for 2024/25 sees a decline due to lower imports and reduced beet sugar production. The balance of supply and use is also affected by shifts in the Mexico-U.S. trade dynamic, as Mexico's exports to the U.S. are adjusted based on U.S. stock-to-use needs.
U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 increases by 239,152 STRV to 14.941 million STRV, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 18%.
U.S. sugar supply for 2024/25 is forecast to decrease by 208,276 STRV, with ending stocks projected at 1.777 million STRV and a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.2%.
Mexico’s export limit to the U.S. for 2024/25 is set at 394,963 MT, maintaining stable trade flows between the two countries.
U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is increased by 239,152 STRV to 14.941 million STRV due to higher beet and cane sugar production and increased imports. Beet sugar production is up by 41,049 STRV, while cane sugar production in Louisiana rises by 53,024 STRV. Ending stocks are projected at 2.278 million STRV, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 18%, up from last month’s 16.1%.
U.S. sugar supply for 2024/25 is forecast to decline by 208,276 STRV, primarily driven by a decrease in imports from Mexico and lower beet sugar production. Total imports are reduced by 403,124 STRV. Ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 1.777 million STRV, with a lower stocks-to-use ratio of 14.2%.
Mexico’s 2024/25 export limit is set at 394,963 MT, reflecting the higher Export Limit from the July WASDE, as calculated by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Total exports to the U.S. are aligned with this figure, while exports to other non-licensed destinations are projected at 529,012 MT. Small adjustments in Mexico’s domestic deliveries slightly increase carryover stocks for 2023/24 by 22,344 MT.
The U.S. sugar market is witnessing supply growth in 2023/24, thanks to increased production and imports, but faces a decline in 2024/25 due to lower import levels and reduced production forecasts. Despite fluctuations, the balance between supply and use remains stable, with adjustments in U.S.-Mexico trade helping to maintain equilibrium in stocks.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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