U.S. Wheat Imports Climb While Global Stocks Shrink to Lowest Since 2015

Based on the USDA's April 2024 Wheat Outlook report, the latest forecast for the 2024/25 wheat marketing year highlights shifting dynamics in both U.S. and global markets, with increased domestic imports and ending stocks in the U.S. contrasting with tightening global supplies.

• U.S. wheat imports are projected to reach 150 million bushels, the highest since 2017/18, raising ending stocks to 846 million.

• U.S. exports are cut to 820 million bushels, while global wheat trade is forecast to decline 7% from last year.

• Global ending stocks are up slightly month-over-month but remain the lowest since 2015/16.

U.S. wheat supplies are set to increase, driven by a 10-million-bushel rise in projected imports to 150 million bushels, the highest since 2017/18. Ending stocks are forecast at 846 million bushels, up 27 million from the previous month and 22% above last year.

U.S. wheat exports are forecast to decline by 15 million bushels to 820 million, with notable reductions in Hard Red Spring and Hard Red Winter wheat. Globally, wheat trade is expected to fall 1.3 million tons to 206.8 million, a 7% drop from the previous year due to reduced exports from Russia, Australia, and the EU.

While U.S. wheat is facing increased import levels and stockpiles, international production setbacks and lowered export capacities point to tightening global supplies. World ending stocks are projected at 260.7 million tons, up slightly from last month but still 3% below last year and at their lowest level since 2015/16. The U.S. average farm price remains steady at $5.50 per bushel.

These developments underscore the value of tools that help businesses proactively manage agricultural commodity risks.

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