The USDA’s latest WASDA report forecasts significant changes in the wheat market for 2024/25, with notable increases in both U.S. and global wheat supplies. This comprehensive outlook sheds light on production, consumption, trade dynamics, and ending stocks, providing critical insights for businesses involved in the wheat market.
U.S. wheat production is raised by 134 million bushels to 2,008 million bushels, with ending stocks up 22% to 856 million bushels.
Global wheat supplies are projected to increase by 6.9 million tons to 1,057.2 million tons, driven by higher production in the U.S., Pakistan, and Canada.
The global wheat trade is stable at 212.9 million tons, with increased exports from the U.S., Canada, and Pakistan balancing reductions from the EU, Turkey, and Uzbekistan.
The U.S. wheat market is expected to see larger supplies, with total wheat production raised by 134 million bushels to 2,008 million bushels. This increase is driven by a higher harvested area and improved yields. Ending stocks are projected to rise by 98 million bushels to 856 million, marking a 22% increase from the previous year and the highest in five years.
Globally, wheat supplies are forecasted to increase by 6.9 million tons to 1,057.2 million tons. This growth is attributed to higher production in key countries, including the United States, Pakistan, and Canada. Pakistan’s production is expected to reach a record 31.4 million tons, while Canada’s output is set to rise to 35.0 million tons due to favorable moisture conditions.
The global wheat trade remains steady at 212.9 million tons. While the United States, Canada, and Pakistan are anticipated to boost their exports, these increases are nearly offset by reductions in exports from the EU, Turkey, and Uzbekistan. This balanced trade scenario highlights the competitive nature of the global wheat market.
The overall wheat market outlook for 2024/25 is positive, with higher production and stocks both in the U.S. and globally. The projected season-average farm price in the U.S. is reduced to $5.70 per bushel, reflecting higher stocks and recent price declines. This environment of increased supply and steady trade provides a stable foundation for businesses dependent on wheat.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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