The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report indicates that the 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook includes larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, lower exports, and increased ending stocks. U.S. wheat imports are projected to rise by 10 million bushels to 140 million due to strong import momentum, while exports are lowered by 15 million bushels to 835 million. Consequently, ending stocks are raised by 25 million bushels to 819 million, marking an 18% increase from last year. The season-average farm price is revised down by $0.05 per bushel to $5.50.
U.S. wheat ending stocks are projected to rise 18% year-over-year to 819 million bushels, while the farm price is revised down to $5.50 per bushel.
Global wheat production is increasing, with Australia’s harvest reaching 34.1 million tons, its third-largest on record.
World wheat trade is declining, with U.S., EU, and Russian exports down, while China's wheat imports are cut by more than half.
On a global scale, wheat supplies are expected to rise by 5.4 million tons to 1,066.7 million, mainly due to increased beginning stocks in Turkey and higher production in Australia, Argentina, and Ukraine. Australia’s wheat production is revised upward by 2.1 million tons to 34.1 million, making it the country’s third-largest harvest on record. Turkey's beginning stocks are also increased by 2.2 million tons following a multi-year revision in food, seed, and industrial usage. Global wheat consumption is projected to rise by 2.9 million tons to 806.7 million, driven by greater feed use in Australia, the EU, and Thailand.
World wheat trade is expected to decline by 0.9 million tons to 208.1 million, reflecting reduced exports from the EU, Russia, and the U.S. China’s wheat imports are forecasted at 6.5 million tons, less than half of the previous year’s figure. Meanwhile, global ending stocks are set to increase by 2.5 million tons to 260.1 million, with notable stock gains in Turkey, Argentina, the U.S., Australia, and Russia.
For businesses navigating wheat market volatility, managing price fluctuations is crucial. Hedgify provides solutions that help businesses hedge against unpredictable shifts in commodity prices, ensuring financial stability in uncertain markets.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
Comments