The outlook for the 2024/25 U.S. wheat market indicates larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, increased exports, and lower ending stocks. This month’s WASDE report highlights key dynamics shaping the wheat market, both domestically and globally.
U.S. wheat production is forecasted at 1,875 million bushels, with an average yield of 49.4 bushels per acre.
Global wheat supplies are projected to decrease to 1,050.3 million tons due to lower production in Russia, Ukraine, and the EU.
U.S. wheat exports are expected to rise to 800 million bushels, driven by competitive pricing.
The forecast for U.S. wheat production stands at 1,875 million bushels, showing an increase of 17 million compared to the previous month. The projected average yield is 49.4 bushels per acre, up by 0.5 bushels. Although exports are higher, ending stocks have been slightly reduced to 758 million bushels, which remains significantly above the previous year's levels.
A decline of 5.7 million tons is anticipated in global wheat supplies, bringing the total to 1,050.3 million tons, as a result of substantial production reductions in Russia, Ukraine, and the EU. Global ending stocks are forecasted to be at 252.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons, primarily due to diminished stocks in the EU.
U.S. wheat exports are forecasted to increase by 25 million bushels to 800 million, driven by competitive pricing amidst reduced Black Sea supplies. Conversely, global trade is anticipated to decline by 3.2 million tons to 212.8 million tons due to lower exports from Russia and Ukraine, only partially offset by increases from the EU and the U.S.
The U.S. wheat market is bolstered by higher production and competitive export prices, while global markets face tightening supplies and reduced trade volumes. These dynamics are likely to influence market prices, with the U.S. season-average farm price raised by $0.50 per bushel to $6.50.
By locking in wheat prices and protecting them from market fluctuations, Hedgify's platform can assist businesses in handling the uncertainties outlined in this report.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
Commentaires