The U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report provides critical insights into the wheat market for the 2023/24 season.
The 2023/24 U.S. wheat forecast anticipates lower supplies at 140 million bushels due to decreased imports, reduced domestic use at 90 million bushels, and higher ending stocks of 698 million bushels, up 22% from last year.
Global wheat supplies for 2023/24 are projected to rise by 0.6 million tons to 1,058.4 million, with consumption up to 800.1 million tons, though ending stocks are expected to drop by 0.6 million tons to 258.3 million, marking the lowest since 2015/16.
The global wheat trade is forecasted to increase by 1.3 million tons to 213.5 million, boosted by higher exports from Russia and Ukraine, while EU exports face reductions due to increased competition from the Black Sea.
For the 2023/24 season, U.S. wheat supplies are projected to decrease, primarily due to a 5 million bushel reduction in imports, now expected to total 140 million bushels. This adjustment is attributed to a slower-than-anticipated import pace, especially for Hard Red Winter wheat. Domestically, consumption is expected to decline, driven by a 30 million bushel decrease in feed and residual use, now forecasted at 90 million bushels. Despite these reductions, ending stocks are forecasted to rise by 25 million bushels to 698 million, marking a 22 percent increase from the previous year.
Globally, the wheat supply for 2023/24 is set to expand, with total supplies increasing by 0.6 million tons to 1,058.4 million, bolstered by higher production in the EU, Moldova, and Pakistan. Consumption is also on the rise, projected to reach 800.1 million tons due to increased food, seed, and industrial use, particularly in India, which saw a 2 million ton increase to 106.2 million. However, global ending stocks are anticipated to decrease by 0.6 million tons to 258.3 million, the lowest since the 2015/16 season, influenced by lower stocks in India and Ukraine.
The trade outlook for global wheat in 2023/24 suggests an increase in global trade volume, up by 1.3 million tons to 213.5 million. This rise is largely due to robust export activities from Russia, which is expected to export 52.0 million tons, and Ukraine, with a forecast of 17.5 million tons. Conversely, the European Union's export forecast is reduced by 2.0 million tons to 34.5 million due to increased competition from Black Sea region exporters.
The 2023/24 wheat market is characterized by a contraction in U.S. supplies and domestic usage, counterbalanced by an increase in ending stocks. Conversely, the global market is witnessing an expansion in both supply and demand, though global stocks are projected to decline.
This detailed understanding of wheat supply, demand, and trade dynamics underscores the value of Hedgify’s platform in helping businesses effectively navigate and hedge against market volatility.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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